The market expects the window to be url withdrawn in the next few weeks, which could bump up demand for US dollar by more than $400 million a day. Dealers expect a gradual return so that the market can absorb the demand for dollars and there is no sudden exchange rate movement. The window was introduced on August 28, when the rupee hit its record-low of 68.85. “We expect OMCs to begin buying dollars in a calibrated fashion,” Yes Bank chief economist Shubhada M Rao told ET. Forex dealers said the rupee may come under pressure and depreciate around 1% when the companies are back in the market. The rupee has been at 61-62 a dollar in the last few weeks and RBI attributed this stability to the rise in exports, the contraction in non-oil import demand, and effective policy interventions.
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NZD/USD hit 0.8260 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8282, easing 0.02%. The pair was likely to find support at 0.8193, the low of October 30 and resistance at 0.8338, the high of October 25. Comments by Fed officials on Monday indicated that the bank is likely to keep its stimulus program in place for some time to come. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Eric Rosengren said bank should keep its asset purchase program in place until there is “compelling evidence of a sustainable recovery making satisfactory progress toward full employment.” The kiwi was higher against the Australian dollar with AUD/NZD edging down 0.19%, to hit 1.1454.
to downgrade its economic outlook after the shutdown on Capitol Hill and the budget impasse that followed. The FOMCs statement played it safe, and in turn, it allowed investors betting the dollar would fall much further to be closed out. Perhaps the focus should be on what wasnt said. After all, Ben Bernanke didnt rule out a December taper, and maybe that was to be expected with the end of his term as Fed chairman drawing near.
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In todays trading so far, the pair has been confined between 1.3521 and 1.3489 and is currently to be seen around the psychological 1.3500 level. Spanish October Unemployment Change is due out at 08.00 UTC today and is expected to show a rise of 31,300. The European Union Economic Forecast for the next two years is due out at 10.00 UTC along with the Eurozones Producer Price Index m/m for September (expected to rise by 0.3 percent). ISMs US Non-Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index for October is due out at 15.00 UTC. Analysts expect a slight decline from the prior 54.4 points. The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism comes out at the same time and is forecast to rise to 41.1 points for this month from the prior 38.4.
Several U.S. central bankers said on Monday the Fed was in no hurry to taper its bond-buying stimulus. Teppei Ino, analyst for Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in Singapore, said the euro’s drop should be seen as a corrective move after many traders had piled up long positions. “If you ask whether there will be a shift to a trend of dollar strength and euro weakness, I don’t think that will be the case.” The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 98.23 yen.
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